By Ramon Vielma
What was agreed?
In August 2026, the U.S. and Venezuela announced an agreement covering 17 Venezuelan oil projects containing more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves.
The concessions were awarded to North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a private oil company already operating in Venezuela. NABEP plans to attract close to $100 billion in private investment to develop the projects and raise production above 1 million barrels per day.
Those 65 billion barrels are reserves underground, not immediately available oil. Much of the resource still requires major investment before it can be commercially produced.
There is also a major contradiction over the agreement's duration. The U.S. side describes 100-year concessions, while Delcy Rodríguez, interim President of Venezuela, has said the agreement lasts 25 years. Because the complete contracts are not public, it remains unclear whether these figures refer to different contractual layers or represent genuinely conflicting versions of the deal.
What does U.S. control mean?
The United States does not legally own Venezuela's oil underground. Instead, it receives extensive rights over NABEP and the oil it produces.
According to the announced structure, the U.S. receives rights to a 35% stake in NABEP, can purchase 20% of its production at production cost, has a right of first refusal over the remaining production, and receives significant influence over the company's board.
The 20% at-cost provision is probably the most striking part. The U.S. is not merely guaranteed access to oil; it can buy that portion without paying the normal market price.
For illustration, if production costs were around $30-40 per barrel and oil were worth $65, the U.S. could effectively buy that portion at a $25-35 discount per barrel, or roughly 40-55% below market. The exact production-cost formula has not been disclosed, so this example is illustrative rather than a precise estimate of the agreement's economics.
This structure could also reduce Venezuela's fiscal take. Oil sold at cost may generate little taxable profit and therefore less income-tax revenue, although royalties may still apply.
Why would Venezuela accept?
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but developing them requires capital the country currently lacks. This is especially relevant because eight of the projects are greenfield blocks in the Orinoco Belt, requiring substantial new investment before production can begin.
In exchange for the rights granted to NABEP, Venezuela expects up to $100 billion in private investment, together with jobs, infrastructure and foreign-currency inflows. As Juan Pablo Guanipa put it: "We will not be able to develop our wealth without substantial foreign private investment."
The government also projects around $209 billion in taxes and royalties over the first 25 years, equivalent to roughly $8.4 billion annually on average. Both figures are projections: the $100 billion still has to be raised, while the $209 billion depends on investment, production levels and oil prices.
There is therefore a clear trade-off. Because the U.S. can buy 20% of production at cost, that portion may generate little taxable profit for Venezuela, potentially reducing the eventual fiscal take even as the deal brings in capital and raises production.
Who is NABEP?
North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP, is a private oil company already operating in Venezuela. Before this deal, it said it had increased production from around 18,000 barrels per day to more than 200,000.
NABEP remains much smaller in production terms than companies such as ExxonMobil or Chevron. What changes with this agreement is the scale of the reserves over which it now holds rights: more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, making it, according to the White House, the second-largest corporate holder of oil reserves in the world.
The company is controlled by Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman who first became prominent through government contracting during the Chávez era. He co-founded Derwick Associates, which received major no-bid contracts in Venezuela's electricity sector, and later moved heavily into oil.
Betancourt has faced investigations abroad over allegations including money laundering, tax fraud and embezzlement. He has denied wrongdoing and has not been convicted in those cases.
The unusual element is therefore not simply NABEP's existing Venezuelan operations, but the fact that a relatively small producer has suddenly become the holder of rights over one of the world's largest oil-reserve portfolios. Betancourt's history and political connections have consequently raised questions about transparency, conflicts of interest and how NABEP obtained such an extraordinary position.
Legitimacy questions
The agreement faces major questions about whether it can survive future political and legal challenges.
There are questions over whether concessions of this scale required a competitive process, and over how far an interim government can commit the country for decades.
Venezuelan economist Ricardo Hausmann directly questioned the deal's legitimacy in a message to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, arguing that Delcy Rodríguez lacked the legitimacy and constitutional authority to commit Venezuela to an agreement of this kind.
That is Hausmann's position rather than an established court ruling, but it captures a material risk: a future Venezuelan government may refuse to accept the deal as currently structured.
The trade-off
The U.S. benefits are unusually clear: equity, governance influence, guaranteed oil at cost and priority access to the rest of NABEP's production.
Venezuela is making a different bet. By giving up some control and future upside, it is seeking to attract enough investment to revive production and generate substantially more economic value than would be created by leaving the oil underground.
The central question is therefore whether the promised investment and production growth will be large enough to justify the economic and strategic rights Venezuela is granting in return.